I have mixed feelings upon learning that capitalism is apparently stepping up to the plate to solve the oil shortage. The price of oil has gotten high enough to make it possible to make a profit from Canadian oil sands. This means that oil will be expensive from here on, but we won't actually run out for a very long time. That gives civilization a little breathing room until we figure out how to make cold fusion work.
That's the good news. The bad news is that we'll have to put up with all the traffic, noise, exhaust fumes and greenhouse gasses for long, long time. But I guess that's better than having civilization collapse.
Did you expect something different to happen?
ReplyDeleteWithout Canadian oil sands I think there was a significant possibility that oil production would peak within a few decades, i.e. before fusion was in the bag. If that happened I think things might have gotten extremely unpleasant.
ReplyDeleteI guess that you didn't really know about the oil sands...or the oil shale...or the methane in the ice...or coal gasification approaches.
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't really matter what the source is. As quantity available goes down of a once common resource, the price rises until it's economical to use a less common/more difficult resource. This process is almost always gradual. This is probably the biggest flaw in peak oil theory. Thie oil may run out, but if it's not sudden and completely unexpected the price signalling will encourage us to find alternatives.
I guess that you didn't really know about the oil sands
ReplyDeleteI knew they existed, but I did not know that they were so plentiful.
As quantity available goes down of a once common resource, the price rises until it's economical to use a less common/more difficult resource.
That works only if the resources are fungible. Not all resources are. It's hard to make jet fuel from methane.