Saturday, August 16, 2003
China will be the next Japan
On a related note to that last post, I predict that China will be the next Japan, that is, that China will do to the computer industry in the 00's what Japan did to the car industry in the 70's and 80's. The reason is very simple: China is innovating and the U.S. isn't. And the reason the U.S. isn't is that no one can make money in software without permission from Bill Gates. Seriously. The minute a new software innovation starts to make enough money to get on Microsoft's radar they are finished. First, Microsoft will offer to acquire them (which is the best outcome any innovator in the United States can hope for) but at a lowball price. If they refuse, then Microsoft simply destroys them, either by strongarming OEMs, by developing a similar product and bundling it with Windows, or by making changes to Windows that break the innovator's software, or a combination of the three. This is why the U.S. software industry is moribund, because most people smart enough to produce a software innovation are also smart enough to realize that it's a waste of time.