I'm too depressed to elaborate much on this, but I just wanted to go on the record with this prediction before the election. Why do I think Trump is going to win? Because DJT stock is up and has been rising steadily since it hit an all-time low in late September. It didn't even go down today after yesterday's disastrous MSG rally. The polls have been static since late September, or even moving slightly in Harris's favor. So why is DJT stock up >400% in one month? I have a hard time believing that there is that much dumb money out there. The most likely explanation I can think of is that someone out there with deep pockets knows the fix is in and Trump is going to win.
Never before in my life have I ever wanted so much to be wrong.
[UPDATE] DJT fell 22% today, its worst trading day ever. Maybe it was just a Trump pump-and-dump? God, I hope so.
It's too close and too uncertain to say for sure, but if I had to I'd make a prediction I'd make the same one, mostly so I can be happy if I'm wrong.
ReplyDeleteAside from the close polling, if Harris does win, the Rs will engage in all kinds of vote counting and elector shenanigans and in the end the farce of an institution that is SCOTUS will do whatever it takes to hand it over to Trump.
The problem here is applying the principle of "wisdom of crowds" to crowds of people who are proven to not be wise. Yes there could be rich people with inside knowledge, but there are known to be a large number of stock holders who just operate on faith in Trump. Who is responsible for buying at the high prices?
ReplyDeleteAlso are there any other share movements that correlate with this? If Trump wins it won't just affect that stock.