tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post8530425077665629320..comments2024-03-18T17:28:44.693-07:00Comments on Rondam Ramblings: James Comey may have singlehandedly destroyed modern civilizationRonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11752242624438232184noreply@blogger.comBlogger88125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-17799444673033843642017-01-24T20:36:32.647-08:002017-01-24T20:36:32.647-08:00"then a flat trend since 2000."
I also ..."then a flat trend since 2000."<br /><br />I also wanted to specifically ask if you are including the most recent three record breaking years, 2014, 2015 and 2016, in your calculations of no trend since 2000. You really would have to be an expert at statistics to make the effect of those disappear.cobyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04042136876169040477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-12351202507190143712017-01-24T16:03:32.867-08:002017-01-24T16:03:32.867-08:00"then a flat trend since 2000."
Can you..."then a flat trend since 2000."<br /><br />Can you please show your work? That talking point was always bogus as an analysis of climate trends. Climate is generally defined as a 30 year average. To remove a statistically significant trend requires cherry picking starting and end years and using an unjustifiably short time period.<br /><br />"An increase of 0.6 K, or about a 0.2%cobyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04042136876169040477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-1581157247662948632017-01-23T18:05:34.580-08:002017-01-23T18:05:34.580-08:00> I see a flat trend from 1945 - 1970, followed...> I see a flat trend from 1945 - 1970, followed by a linearly increasing trend from 1970 - 2000, then a flat trend since 2000.<br /><br />OK, but do you not see that the "flat trend" since 2000 has settled at higher temperatures than at any time in history? Do you not see that the flat period between 1945 and 1970 was preceded by another warming period? So in the past 100 years we Ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11752242624438232184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-3473870359985816862017-01-21T00:03:33.639-08:002017-01-21T00:03:33.639-08:00Why yes...
>Are you a statistician? Are you ma...<b>Why yes...</b><br /><br /><i>>Are you a statistician? Are you making this assessment that "they're really bad at statistics" based on your own personal expertise or are you just taking someone else's word for it?</i><br /><br />Why yes, <i>I am a statistician.</i> I read critical critiques of their analysis methods written by other statisticians. Highly entertaining, with Publiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00647613579979908182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-51891249514976589322016-11-23T20:25:45.838-08:002016-11-23T20:25:45.838-08:00> For a "field" that depends so much ...> For a "field" that depends so much on statistics, they're really bad at statistics.<br /><br />Are you a statistician? Are you making this assessment that "they're really bad at statistics" based on your own personal expertise or are you just taking someone else's word for it?<br /><br />> Now a simple quiz:<br /><br />Sorry, I'm not going to play thisRonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11752242624438232184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-86942872932109263222016-11-23T15:06:31.528-08:002016-11-23T15:06:31.528-08:00Average Temperature
@Ron
You left out this impor...<b>Average Temperature</b><br /><br /><i><br />@Ron<br />You left out this important passage at the end of that report:<br /><br />"it is important to be clear that the neither the panel report nor the press briefing intended to imply that any research group in the field of climate change had been deliberately misleading in any of their analyses or intentionally exaggerated their findings&Publiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00647613579979908182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-34022025443499728582016-11-21T20:27:17.291-08:002016-11-21T20:27:17.291-08:00[2/2]
"the cost of adapting to an ice age&q...[2/2]<br /><br /><br />"<i>the cost of adapting to an ice age</i>"<br /><br />Is this really the question you want to ask? Aren't you really more interested in the cost to adapting to +4deg warmer? (I believe warmer is cheaper than colder, FWIW.) Anyway, part of the answer depends on how quickly the climate change happens. Buildings typically only last a few decades. The cost Don Geddishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04214642122689048677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-64944573147779739462016-11-21T20:26:58.300-08:002016-11-21T20:26:58.300-08:00[1/2]
coby: "4oC warming was not so alarming...[1/2]<br /><br />coby: "<i>4oC warming was not so alarming we should take any expensive actions to avoid</i>"<br /><br />Not at all. I'm saying that it is (very!) expensive, both to attempt to prevent that warming, and also for civilization to accommodate it, once it happens. There is tremendous uncertainty with both estimates, but they roughly seem to be similar orders of cost. Don Geddishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04214642122689048677noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-33362014784928787402016-11-21T19:53:53.042-08:002016-11-21T19:53:53.042-08:00Publius, I looked at your annotations here (Fig. 2...Publius, I looked at your annotations here (<a href="https://sli.mg/5iRYXe" rel="nofollow">Fig. 2B Global Temperature Anomoly past 750,000 years</a>) and note that inside your "realistic" confidence intervals is a deep ice age at a global temperature anomaly of +2oC and a climate like today's at a temperature anomaly of -6oC.<br /><br />So, I'll assume you are just having a cobyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04042136876169040477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-11340553251421738022016-11-21T19:48:11.728-08:002016-11-21T19:48:11.728-08:00coby: "why do you constantly imply that suret...<em>coby: "why do you constantly imply that surety of survival is all you need"<br />DG: I never meant to imply that at all. I'm not sure what I might have said that could give you such a misreading of my position.</em><br /><br />Well, you suggested 4oC warming was not so alarming we should take any expensive actions to avoid. So I illustrated the enormity of a 4oC change in cobyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04042136876169040477noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-47200964972384998172016-11-21T14:55:56.375-08:002016-11-21T14:55:56.375-08:00@Publius:
> As the University of East Anglia C...@Publius:<br /><br />> As the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (CRU) Science Assessment Panel concluded (see p. 5)<br /><br />You left out this important passage at the end of that report:<br /><br />"it is important to be clear that the neither the panel report nor the press briefing intended to imply that any research group in the field of climate change had been Ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11752242624438232184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-33514763736313819832016-11-20T15:45:08.161-08:002016-11-20T15:45:08.161-08:00> "climate sensitivity" is a quantit...> "climate sensitivity" is a quantity still under active research<br /><br />Well, yeah, but so what? We are careening towards a cliff. There is uncertainty about exactly where the cliff is, but no reasonable person can doubt that the cliff is *there*. And as the evidence accumulates, it all indicates that it's a lot closer than anyone at first thought: decades, not centuriesRonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11752242624438232184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-7415355087831706242016-11-20T14:39:08.754-08:002016-11-20T14:39:08.754-08:00Another Offense to Statistics
@Ron:
Heh, this is ...<b>Another Offense to Statistics</b><br /><br />@Ron:<br /><i>Heh, this is timely:</i><br /><br /><a href="http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/11/e1501923.full" rel="nofollow">Nonlinear climate sensitivity and its implications for future greenhouse warming</a><br /><br />This report is yet another offense against statistics. As the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (CRU) Publiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00647613579979908182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-37497113107252677172016-11-20T14:22:58.793-08:002016-11-20T14:22:58.793-08:00Bzzt! Error! Error!
My citation of the Hansen pap...<b>Bzzt! Error! Error!</b><br /><br />My citation of the Hansen paper was to provide citations to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, which was discovered ~75 years ago. "Atmosphere chaotic? = YES" goes into the ontology as "known fact." <br /><br />Whereas "climate sensitivity" is a quantity still under active research. Publiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00647613579979908182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-155110820044198992016-11-20T01:57:16.561-08:002016-11-20T01:57:16.561-08:00> Using old journal data!
Pot. Kettle. You w...> Using old journal data!<br /><br />Pot. Kettle. You were the one who originally cited that paper, not me.<br />Ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11752242624438232184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-79982979844851041822016-11-19T23:27:57.126-08:002016-11-19T23:27:57.126-08:00Extreme Weather
@Tony:
> Despite all the alar...<b>Extreme Weather</b><br /><br /><i><br />@Tony:<br />> Despite all the alarmist howling, "extreme weather events" have not increased<br /><br />@Ron:<br />Not true.<br /><br /><a href="http://tinyurl.com/hwla47w" rel="nofollow">Extreme Weather Already On Increase Due to Climate Change Study Finds</a><br /></i><br /><br />The news article Ron references is reporting on this letter, Publiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00647613579979908182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-29653836174128365132016-11-19T23:26:12.756-08:002016-11-19T23:26:12.756-08:00Tsk, Tsk
Using old journal data! That Hansen pape...<b>Tsk, Tsk</b><br /><br />Using old journal data! That Hansen paper is from 2008.<br /><br />The estimate for climate sensitivity (ECS) has been <a href="https://landshape.files.wordpress.com/2015/06/climate_sensitivity.pdf" rel="nofollow">continuously decreasing</a> over the years.<br /><br />The <a href="http://tinyurl.com/nvrd9hp" rel="nofollow">latest estimate</a> would be <b>1.64 K</b>, Publiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00647613579979908182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-19174861091519734612016-11-19T10:20:29.005-08:002016-11-19T10:20:29.005-08:00@Ron:
> But I'll still give you long odds ...@Ron:<br /><br />> But I'll still give you long odds against.<br /><br />Sure. But long odds such as this seem to have a way of motivating people, of giving them a kind of psychic energy which can lead to fantastic discoveries and achievements. One of the biggest lacunae I find in many people's modeling of humans and humans in society is gauging the intensity (or lack thereof) of <i>Lukehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18395549142176242491noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-40265252237019114342016-11-18T23:28:07.586-08:002016-11-18T23:28:07.586-08:00@Publius:
> References to the chaotic nature o...@Publius:<br /><br />> References to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere can be found in this paper:<br /><br />And so can this:<br /><br />"Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3°C for doubled CO2, including only fast feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is ~6°C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between Ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11752242624438232184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-46108971953951846802016-11-18T23:14:17.933-08:002016-11-18T23:14:17.933-08:00> Are you saying 1–100cm asteroids would not be...> Are you saying 1–100cm asteroids would not be a significant problem for a moon colony?<br /><br />Good point. OK, I'll concede the point: it's possible that a moon colony could preserve civilization even in the face of nuclear armageddon. But I'll still give you long odds against.<br /><br />> Are Christians the only ones with major idol problems?<br /><br />No, of course Ronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11752242624438232184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-61327098226465970462016-11-18T19:23:19.072-08:002016-11-18T19:23:19.072-08:00Extreme Weather
@Tony:
> Despite all the alar...<b>Extreme Weather</b><br /><br /><i><br />@Tony:<br />> Despite all the alarmist howling, "extreme weather events" have not increased<br /><br />@Ron:<br />Not true.<br /><br /><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/27/extreme-weather-already-on-increase-due-to-climate-change-study-finds" rel="nofollow">Extreme Weather Already On Increase Due to Climate Change Publiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00647613579979908182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-16638695494182755502016-11-18T19:19:35.569-08:002016-11-18T19:19:35.569-08:00posting hypothesis
blogger.com does not like URLs...<b>posting hypothesis</b><br /><br />blogger.com does not like URLs with "-" in them. Publiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00647613579979908182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-54822657869886170512016-11-18T19:15:57.482-08:002016-11-18T19:15:57.482-08:00CONTROL vs. KAOS
References to the chaotic nature...<b>CONTROL vs. KAOS</b><br /><br />References to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere can be found in this paper:<br /><br /><a href="https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0804/0804.1126.pdf" rel="nofollow">Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?</a> by J. Hansen et al. (2008)<br /><br />p. 15: <i>Climate has great variability, much of which is unforced and unpredictable [2, 90].. . . ThePubliushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00647613579979908182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-11993123015644904202016-11-18T19:14:15.129-08:002016-11-18T19:14:15.129-08:00CONTROL vs. KAOS
References to the chaotic nature...<b>CONTROL vs. KAOS</b><br /><br />References to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere can be found in this paper:<br /><br /><a href="https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/0804/0804.1126.pdf" rel="nofollow">Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?</a> by J. Hansen et al. (2008)<br /><br />p. 15: <i>Climate has great variability, much of which is unforced and unpredictable [2, 90].. . . ThePubliushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00647613579979908182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5592542.post-7485047620223393952016-11-18T19:06:11.482-08:002016-11-18T19:06:11.482-08:00posting
Did the clear cache/cookies, re-booted, a...<b>posting</b><br /><br />Did the clear cache/cookies, re-booted, a few other things ...<br />When I post, it now will<br />1) increment the post counter<br />2) the post will come through the rss feed<br />3) it will not appear on the website<br /><br />Web searching for it, one finds many others with the same problem - not a lot of solutions, or understanding of it, though. Definitely thought Publiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00647613579979908182noreply@blogger.com